Russia will host a regional conference on Afghanistan later this month to discuss efforts aimed at settling the protracted Afghan conflict and containing “spillover effects” of Islamic State terrorists trying to get a foothold in the war-ravaged nation.

Moscow organized a tripartite meeting on the subject late December where it only invited Pakistan and China.  The dialogue prompted strong reaction and protest from the Afghan government for being left out of it.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday Afghanistan now has been formally invited to another round due in mid-February where senior officials from China, Iran, India and Pakistan also will be in attendance.

Lavrov made the statement in Moscow after talks with visiting Afghan counterpart, Salahuddin Rabbani, saying most of the countries already have confirmed their participation.  

IS emerged in Afghanistan about two years ago, and has been conducting extremist attacks in the country and in parts of Pakistan under its regional name of Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP).  But the terrorist group has not been able so far to extend its activities beyond few districts in eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar, which borders Pakistan.

The violent IS campaign has worried Pakistan, which shares a nearly 2,600-kilometer border with Afghanistan.

Russia defends its active Afghan diplomacy, saying continued fighting between Afghan forces and the Taliban would allow IS to extend its activities to northern Afghan regions in its bid to infiltrate bordering Central Asian republics, and ultimately undermine Moscow’s national security interests.

“Russia is much more concerned about the growth of IS in Afghanistan because they regard IS as a threat.  So, they don’t want this force [IS] to knock at the Central Asian and Caucasian doors,” said Pakistani prime minister’s foreign policy advisor Sartaj Aziz while speaking to VOA.

He added that Moscow apparently is trying to form a regional platform to prevent Afghan instability from spilling over into neighboring countries.

“So, they need a regional approach and a cooperative approach to make sure that this turmoil does not go in their sphere of influence so that is their main motivation and that is our priority also to make sure that terrorism does not spread from this area to other parts,” said Aziz.

Pakistani authorities maintain that IS militants operating in Afghan border regions have been behind recent deadly attacks in their country.

Advisor Aziz emphasized the need for seeking an urgent negotiated settlement of the Afghan conflict by encouraging peace talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government.  He insisted that continuation of hostilities will only fuel instability in Afghanistan.

Speaking Tuesday in Moscow, Foreign Minister Lavrov also underscored Russia’s support for involving the Taliban in peace talks to end the Afghan war.

“We have confirmed our common stance that Taliban should be involved in a constructive dialogue in keeping with the criteria contained in the U.N. Security Council resolutions,” Russian media quoted Lavrov as saying.

The Taliban has shown no willingness to engage in peace talks with the Afghan government, and instead has expanded its insurgent activities across the country, capturing more territory and inflicting more casualties on Afghan security forces, as well as civilians.

The United Nations also has documented a sharp increase in IS attacks against civilians, particularly against the Shia Muslim religious minority in Afghanistan last year.

It noted in its annual report, issued Monday, the number of civilian casualties perpetrated by ISKP increased nearly 10 times in 2016 when 899 civilian casualties occurred, including 209 deaths. The figures stood at 82, including 39 deaths in 2015.

Russian officials maintain IS militants fleeing counter-terrorism operations in Syria and Iraq are seeking refuge in Afghanistan, and they are using the conflict-hit country to expand their extremist activities to neighboring countries.  China and Iran also have expressed similar concerns.

 
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Since his January inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken with more than a dozen world leaders. A list released recently by the White House listed 16 and included many of Washington’s traditional allies, even Russia. For some, one country was curiously absent: China.

And that has some China watchers wondering not only why, but when Trump will speak with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Since stepping into office, Trump’s focus has largely been on domestic issues and national security. And analysts say his pledge to put America first has meant he needs to focus on bringing jobs back to the United States, not a country he has accused of stealing those opportunities.

The U.S. president’s campaign pledge to bring jobs back to America is not only at odds with China’s interests, but his administration’s statements on what Beijing regards as “core interest” issues such as disputes in the South China Sea or a decision to speak with Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, have made China uneasy.

“From Mr. Trump’s perspective, he has to sort out his various policies; sometimes there are contradictions and so on, before he could have a coherent conversation with [China’s] President Xi,” says Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

Still on radar

The delay does not mean that China is not on Trump’s radar, says Wong Ming-hsien, a professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan.

Wong says that when dealing with China, it is not just one issue. When it comes to U.S.-China relations, there is a whole host of problems, including the Chinese currency, the trade deficit, cyber security and other issues.

“When dealing with one issue related to China, there are always many other complex issues that come up,” Wong says.

By contrast, Wong says many of the issues Trump has taken on are ones the United States can take the lead in addressing, such as Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis’ recent trip to South Korea and Japan or Trump’s recent phone conversations with leaders like Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.

“China is the other superpower and I think even with Mr. Trump, he will take some precautions in carrying out such a conversation,” Oh Ei Sun says. “I think that President Trump and President Xi will meet up in the very near future, be it at a bilateral summit or on the sidelines of an international conference.”

Wong, however, says it makes sense for Trump to try not to concentrate on China policy issues now because President Xi’s key focus this year too is on issues at home.

Later this year, China will hold a leadership reorganization, scheduled for every five years, during which Xi is expected to try to further solidify his power.

Hidden message

Wong says for the thornier issues, Trump may wait as long as six months before he tries to tackle any bigger issues with China.

Some analysts see the delay as a hidden message or tactic by Trump. They also say it highlights how the new administration may completely revamp the channels and mechanisms the two countries use to interact.

Shi Yinhong, a political scientist at Beijing’s Renmin University, says that much like he has done with other leaders, Trump appears to be trying to show his toughness.

“This absence of a phone call from Trump to Xi Jinping seems to indicate a deliberate approach on the part of President Trump to show that he is going to be more firm,” Shi says.

Given Trump’s negative remarks on the campaign trail and criticism of China in economic, financial and security fields, a call could help clear the air.

“A phone call cannot solve any major concrete issues, but what is required is an exchange of some good words or goodwill between the two presidents, which unfortunately has still not happened,” Shi said.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has strongly defended his radical ban on high currency notes as the right step, at the right time, that will deliver a cleaner economy.

Critics lambasted the currency ban, questioning why Modi took the action at a time when the country had outpaced China to become the world’s fastest growing economy. According to various estimates, the ban will pull down growth by one percent, displacing India from the top position.

Speaking for the first time in parliament since the ban was imposed on high denomination notes in November, Modi said that having the economy in good shape meant that was the right time to take the tough step. Comparing it with surgery, he told lawmakers, “If you are ill and need an operation, the doctor asks you to control parameters such as diabetes until the body is healthy. This was the right time for demonetization because the economy was doing well.”

Economists remain divided as to whether there will be any long-term benefits from the decision, which created huge currency shortages, led to hardship for hundreds of thousands of poor people who scrambled to exchange old notes, and slowed down the informal sector that employs nearly 90 percent of the workforce.

Modi, however called it a “pro-poor move” that will deliver a “clean India.” Warning that the government will press ahead with more measures to curb corruption, he said, “It does not matter how big you are, you will have to give back what belongs to the poor. I will not turn back from this path.”

The currency ban was meant to flush out illicit cash on which taxes have not been paid – a widespread problem in India where tax compliance is extremely low.

Several economists, however, say the world’s most sweeping currency change move in decades has done little to dent corrupt practices that create what is known in India as “black money.” While the old stocks of black money may have been targeted, they point out that demonetization cannot stop the generation of illicit cash.

Economist N. Bhanumurthy, with New Delhi’s National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, is among those who believe that the cash ban was a step in the right direction. “It is not going to completely remove the black money generation in future, but at least it would have some kind of impact.” He says significant public policy measures to curb the flow of illegal cash are in the works.

While economists will continue to debate the benefits of the measure for a long time, for the Indian prime minister the key test lies in how much ordinary people back his decision. That will be reflected in how Indians cast votes in four states where elections are currently being held. A good showing for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party will mean that his move has paid political dividends, while a poor showing will be interpreted as a rebuff by people who suffered due to the cash crunch.  

Modi said he was aware of the risks he had taken. “I am not concerned about the elections,” he said. “I am concerned about my country.”
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Afghan officials say a suicide bomb attack near the Supreme Court building in the capital, Kabul, has killed at least  20 people and wounded about 40 others.

Most of the victims are said to be court employees.

There were at least two women and a child among the dead.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani condemned the deadly bombing as an “inhuman and an “unforgivable” act.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer also condemned the attack Tuesday, calling it a “cowardly act” and re-affirming U.S. support for the Afghan government.

WATCH: Spicer on Kabul attack

There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

The attack came a day after the United Nations said in its annual report that conflict-related violence in Afghanistan caused more than 11,400 civilian casualties, including around 3,500 deaths in 2016, making it the deadliest year since 2009.

 
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Since the Bangladesh government announced it has begun a process to relocate the country’s Rohingya refugees to a remote island in Bay of Bengal, a new tension has gripped refugee Mohammad Eliyas. 

Eliyas, who fled violence in Myanmar and took refuge in Bangladesh, says that he is scared at the thought of being forced to relocate to the island of Thengar Char, which surfaced only 10 years ago and is flooded during high tide.  

“To save our lives we crossed over to Bangladesh and we believed we would get better protection in this Muslim majority country. But now we are being told that we have to move to a remote island,” said Eliyas, 50, a day worker who lives with his wife and two children in a shanty-colony in Cox’s Bazar district. 

Rights groups have voiced strong concerns about  the government’s controversial plan to send the refugees to the island, saying it could trigger a total human rights catastrophe and a humanitarian disaster.   

Long history 

The Rohingya religious minority has frequently fled to neighboring Bangladesh and other countries since the 1970s to escape economic hardship and what they say is persecution by Myanmar’s military. Myanmar has consistently denied the allegations of persecution and abuse of the Rohingya.  Currently, there are up to half a million Rohingyas in Bangladesh, with over 90 percent living as illegal or unregistered refugees across southeastern coastal areas. 

Bangladesh first proposed to relocate the Rohingya refugees to Thengar Char in 2015. But the idea faded from the news until late last month, when the government announced it had already set up a committee to push ahead with the plan. 

But one land department official in Noakhali district, where Thengar Char is located, has told VOA that during the high tide the whole 30,000-hectare island goes under several meters of water, the land there is extremely unstable and uninhabitable. 

Another local forest department official, who also did not want to be named for fear of reprisals from authorities, said mangrove trees have been planted on about 2,000 hectares of the island, but it would take at least 20 years for a small part of the island to be suitable for farming.  

Blame and consultation 

A government order said the refugees, registered and unregistered, would be relocated to the island to prevent them from “intermingling” with the Bangladeshi citizens. 

Bangladesh says the Rohingya refugees are responsible for a deteriorating law and order situation in south eastern Bangladesh where they are located, blaming them for the depletion of forest resources and triggering “other social and economic problems,” in addition to spreading infectious diseases.  

But Chowdhury Rafiqul Abrar, who directs the Dhaka-based Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU), said linking the entire refugee community to those problems is not justified. 

“We have not seen any compelling evidence in support of the charges against the Rohingya community. We must bear in mind that undocumented Rohingya community members live without any protection and have to fend for themselves,” said Abrar, who also teaches international relations at University of Dhaka.  

Phil Robertson, Deputy Asia Director for Human Rights Watch, said the Bangladesh government should to understand that the protection of the refugees requires real consultation with them about their needs. 

“These Rohingya refugees need protection, not a punitive transfer to an island where they will have no way to make a livelihood and must struggle to survive. Thengar Char is also vulnerable to devastation by typhoons, which often hit Bangladesh,” Robertson told VOA. 

Suitable for living 

However, Bangladesh’s State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Shahriar Alam said last week that the army has been tasked to make the island suitable for living. 

“They will do whatever is needed to make the island livable. Then the refugees from Cox’s Bazar and other areas will be moved to Thengar Char. And the process for this relocation has already begun,” Alam said. 

He added that the cost of relocating the refugees will be basically borne by the Bangladesh government. 

“[For this relocation process], we may seek some international support from some friendly countries … The refugees will live in the island on temporary basis and we hope, the Myanmar government will take them back soon,” the minister added.    

However, Human Rights Watch’s Phil Robertson said that he does not believe that the island would be livable for the refugees that soon.    

“UN agencies and government donors should not believe Dhaka’s claims that they can make such a place hospitable for these refugees, and they should tell Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in no uncertain terms that they will strongly and consistently oppose this move,” he said. 

If the plan does go forward, some Rohingya seem likely to take to the seas again in search of better conditions.  

“If we go back to Myanmar, the military and the (local Rakhine Buddhists) will torture and kill us. We will be better taking a boat, and in the name of Allah, taking big risks, we will sail out for Malaysia,” said Mohammad Eliyas.
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